Alan Skeoch

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  • EPISODE 489 CAN A SNOWFLAKE CAPTURE THE CORONA VIRUS? FACTS AND FICTION

    EPISODE 489   CAN A SNOWFLAKE CAPTURE THE CORONA VIRUS?  (FACTS AND FICTION)


    alan skeoch
    dec. 18,2021


    “Marjorie, this corona virus is starting to get to me.”
    “How so?  Are you any different than others?”
    “No.  But the goddamn virus is changing my life.  And not for the best.”
    “Get your coat on.  Let’s take Woody for a walk and calm down.”
    “The streets are empty.  Everybody is hived away.”
    “Not everybody. There are tracks.”
    “Thos are our tracks.”


    “READERS will have trouble separating fact from fiction in this episode Marjorie”
    “Not Surprised.”




    TODAY our streets were bombarded by millions of large heavy snowflakes.
    And at the same time parts of our neighbourhood harboured billions, perhaps hundreds
    of billions of the corona virus.  Our streets are empty

    Is it safe to go for a walk?  Unmasked?  Which got me to thinking.  The virus is
    so small that it cannot be detected even by sophisticated microscopes. And the
    virus is so light that it can float around in the air quite freely.   Which made me
    think.


    “What are viruses anyway?  Animal, vegetable or mineral?

    Viruses are microscopic parasites, generally much smaller than bacteria. They lack the capacity to thrive and reproduce outside of a host body. 

    Predominantly, viruses have a reputation for being the cause of contagion. Widespread events of disease and death have no doubt bolstered such a reputation. The 2014 outbreak of Ebola in West Africa, and the 2009 H1N1/swine flu pandemic (a widespread global outbreak) likely come to mind. 

    “How long have the little bastards been around?

    “Some scientists say they only appeared 8,000 BCE years ago.  Others say they are 55 million yeas old and co developed with bats.  
    Quite a difference in opinion.”


    “How big are the snowflakes?”
    “Big enough to see them until they disappear.”
    “Which makes me think.  The virus seems to be everywhere…even out here.”
    “According to the experts, yes…everywhere…at least in spots all around he
    earth.”
    “Even out here on Glenburnie Road?”
    “Now here’s an idea…Suppose one of these big wet snowflakes struck a tiny corona virus.  Wouldn’t the
    snowflake capture the virus and take it to the ground.  Wouldn’t a million snowflakes
    take a billion corona virus to the ground?    Cleanse our air?  “
    “Sort of silly comments, alan”


    “Now here is a mathematical problem.  The Question:
    “How many corona virus can be caught by one fluffy snowflake?”
    “Has anybody ever answered?
    “Yes, the mathematician Christian Yates did…in a way that is similar…”
    (See Conclusion…after the silly stuff)



    “WHAT DOES A CORONAVIRUS LOOK LIKE?”

    Seems to be quite attractive . At least according to the editors of Scientific American (July 2020)
    who put this image on the front over of the magazine in 2020.  NOT THE REAL COLOURS I IMAGINE.

    You may wonder what those yellow stems are…They are ‘grabbers’ that latch on to your lung cells
    and then allow the Covid 19 Virus to squeeze into lung cells.  In other words those ‘grabbers’ are
    not nice.  In many cases infected people do not even know the Covid Virus is in their lungs.

    TWO QUESTIONS


     On October 16 ,2020  Australian study says the SARS COVID 2  virus can live for 28 days (Oct. 16, 2020)


    2)  How much space would be needed if we gathered all the Corona Viruses in the world??”

    “Suppose we gathered all the Corona Virus on the earth right now.  How much space would we
    need to keep them?””

    Below is the answer given by mathematician Chrisitan Yates

    Picture Of Red Can Of Soft Drink




    If you collected up every Sars-CoV-2 virus particle in the world, it would fit inside a soft drinks can, writes the mathematician Christian Yates.
    W

    When I was asked to calculate the total volume of Sars-CoV-2 in the world for the BBC Radio 4 show More or Less, I will admit I had no idea what the answer would be. My wife suggested it would be the size of an Olympic swimming pool. “Either that or a teaspoon,” she said. “It’s usually one or the other with these sorts of questions.”

    So how to set about calculating an approximation of what the total volume really is?

    Fortunately, I have some form with these sorts of large-scale back-of-the-envelope estimations, having carried out a number of them for my book The Maths of Life and Death. Before we embark on this particular numerical journey, though, I should be clear that this is an approximation based on the most reasonable assumptions, but I will happily admit there may be places where it can be improved.

    You might also be interested in:

    So where to start? We’d better first calculate how many Sars-CoV-2 particles there are in the world. To do that, we’ll need to know how many people are infected. (We’ll assume humans rather than animals are the most significant reservoir for the virus.)


    The amount of virus that each of the people currently infected will carry around with them (their viral load) depends on how long ago they were infected. On average, viral loads are thought to rise and peak about six days after infection, after which they steadily decline.

    Of all the people who are infected now, those who got infected yesterday will contribute a little to the total count. Those who were infected a couple of days ago will contribute a little more. Those infected three days ago a little more still. On average, people infected six days ago will have the highest viral load. This contribution will then decline for people who were infected seven or eight or nine days ago, and so on.

    The final thing we need to know is the number of virus particles people harbour at any point during their infection. Since we know roughly how viral load changes over time, it’s enough to have an estimate of the peak viral load. An unpublished study took data on the number of virus particles per gram of a range of different tissues in infected monkeys and scaled up the size of tissue to be representative of humans. Their rough estimates for peak viral loads range from one billion to 100 billion virus particles.

    Let’s work with a value in the middle of this range (the geometric mean) at 10 billion. When you add up all the contributions to the viral load of each of the 3 million people who became infected on each of the previous days (assuming this 3 million rate is roughly constant) then we find that there are roughly 200 quadrillion (2×10¹⁷ or two hundred million billion) virus particles in the world at any one time.

    CONCLUSION
    “SO, Alan, How many virus could we gather on our walk in the snow?
    “Not enough to cover the head of a pin.?
    “How do you know that?”
    “I have no bloody idea.”
    “Could we put all the virus particles in the world into our schoolhouse…bird house?”
    “Apparently so.”
    “Do you think any Covid 19 has been captured by these fluffy snowflakes?”
    “You flatter my intelligence.  Just for fun count the snowlafes on the school house roof
    and  multiply it by a billion billion or more…that’s the space needed for the Covid virus.
    “Stick with the pop can image…makes more sense.


    POST SCRIPT…NEXT DAY
    “MARJORIE, I see the TTC has ordered all windows on busses to be open.”
    “Why?”
    “To blow as many of the Covid particles out the windows i imagine.”
    “How did the Covid particles get in the busses anyway?”
    “From the lungs of infected people.  A lot of people do not even know they are infected.”
    “Well the open window trick won’t work today?”
    “Why nor?”
    “The sun is out…beautiful day.”
    “What has that got to do with limiting the Covid viruses?”
    “No falling snowflakes to catch the viruses and take them to the ground.”
    “Sometimes you say stupid things, Alan.”
    “Right … the snowflake caper would not help much anyway.”
    “Why not?”
    “Those Australian researchers said the Covid virus could live for 28 days on surfaces.”
    “Really?”
    “Means we could pick the virus up on our boots.”
    “Now that is a really stupid answer.”
    “Your job is to separate fact from fiction…now!”

    FACTS
    1) UP TO 28 DAY LIFE OF VIRUS
    2) VIRUS REPRODUCED IN HUMAN LUNGS… AND EXPECCED
    3) TTC BUSSES NOW HAVE OPEN WINDOWS
    4) ALL COVID VIRUSES ON EARTH COULD BE PUT IN A POP CAN
    5) VIRUSSES EMERGED SOMETIME BETWEEN 8,000 AND 55 MILLION YEARS AGO
    6) THE LITTLE STALKS ON THE VIRUS ARE ‘GRABBERS’ THAT SEIZE LUNG CELLS
    FICTION
    1) SNOWFLAKES COULD CATCH VIRUSES 
    2) VIRUSES ON OUR BOOTS
    3) OPEN AIR IS AS DANGEROUS AS CROWDED BARROOM
    4) STREETS ARE EMPTY…NOT SO BECAUSE LIFE GOES ON DESPITE COVID 19

    TODAY…DECEMBER 19, 2021…THE SUN IS SHINING 

      

  • EPISODE 487 SO WILL YOU, PLEASE, SAY HELLO TO THE FOLKS THAT I KNOW (WE’LL MEET AGAIN)


    EPISODE 487     WE’LL MEET AGAIN…SOME SUNNY DAY

    alan skeoch
    Dec. 17, 2021



    Now is the hour - 103 and trending, Dame Vera Lynn eight decades after her debut


    Vera Lynn, Singer Whose Wartime Ballads Uplifted U.K., Dies at 103 - The New York Times

                               WE’LL MEET AGAIN!  

                                    I mean it…we will meet again.   

                                DON’T KNOW WHERE,
                                    No idea where…perhaps for coffee
                            DON’T KNOW WHEN! 
                                    Certainly not today, perhaps not for Christmas…Easter, maybe…springtime!
                             BUT I KNOW WE’LL MEET AGAIN SOME SUNNY DAY
                                   Yesterday, the sun burst forth.  Not that great day in the future when the pandemic is over..
                                   Yesterday All that sun did was cast dark shadows’’’skeletal tree shadows.  No joy there.
                          KEEP SMILING THROUGH LIKE YOU ALWAYS DO
     





                           SO WILL YOU, PLEASE, SAY HELLO TO THE FOLKS THAT I KNOW

    When Vera Lynn sang this song…so many times…tears ran down the faces
    of the toughest soldiers facing the invasion of Europe in 1944.  Men who knew
    they might never see those blue skies that would DRIVE THE DARK CLOUDS FAR AWAY.

    Our situation is perilous.  Not as dark as 1944.  But as dark as those Spanish Flu years of 1918
    and 1919.   Most of us will survive the pandemic which swirls 
    around the planet.  Many will not.   20,000 Canadians have died…as have 800,000 Americans.
    And  all of us have seen our lives turned upside down.  A great many sit alone in tiny rooms, others
    are locked in condominiums fearful of their own elevators that could harbour Delta or Omicron variants of Covid 19.
    There is safety in isolation but that is not the natural state of human beings.  We are social animals
    and this virus has turned us into something different.


    So let’s call on Vera Lynn again.  Let’s be reminded that
    these days will pass and new days will come where laughter
    will replace fear.

    If you cannot find the song tucked away in your computer,
    then just sing it yourself.  You know the tune … we all do.


    We’ll Meet Again

    Vera Lynn, Arthur Young
    We’ll meet again
    Don’t know where, don’t know when
    But I know we’ll meet again
    Some sunny day
    Keep smiling through
    Just like you always do
    ‘Til the blue skies drive the dark clouds
    Far away
    So will you, please, say hello
    To the folks that I know?
    Tell them I won’t be long
    They’ll be happy to know
    That as you saw me go
    I was singing this song
    We’ll meet again
    Don’t know where, don’t know when
    But I know we’ll meet again
    Some sunny day
    We’ll meet again
    Don’t know where, don’t know when
    But I know we’ll meet again
    Some sunny day
    Keep smiling through
    Just like you always do
    ‘Til the blue skies drive the dark clouds
    Far away
    So will you, please, say hello
    To the folks that I know?
    Tell them I won’t be long
    They’ll be happy to know
    That as you saw me go
    I was singing this song
    We’ll meet again
    Don’t know where, don’t know when
    But I know we’ll meet again
    Some sunny day



    SO WILL YOU, PLEASE, SAY HELLO TO THE FOLKS THAT I KNOW

    DATELINE   DECEMBER 17, 2021
    LOCATION    PORT CREDIT, MISSISSAUGA

    Marjorie and I had planned to board an Air Canada jet bound
    for London England tonight.  Take off was 8.30 p.,m.  It is now 9.30 about
    the time our steward or stewardess would be serving a fancy hot meal on
    fancy plates with real silver looking knives and forks.  We had paid the extra
    charge of Special Economy seating.   We would be reading for a while, talking
    about meeting our eldest son Kevin who the had not seen for two years …longer than that.
    Then we would stretch out as best we could, close our eyes and dream.  When the sun
    came up we would land in Heath Row where Kevin and his children…now adults…would meet
    us with squeals of joy.  Morgan and Nolan would grab Marjorie by each arm…Kevin and I would
    shake hands…father and son.  Kevin has arranged for us to stay with all the family in a luxury house
    on a 500 acre English estate where the horse barns harbours 18 horses.  Pets.   In the late afternoon Marjorie and I along with Morgan
    would visit the Thrift stores selling second hand clothing and used books.  We might have fish and chips
    in Muswell Hill or Crouch End.  Cheek to jowl with Brits.  Then later a pub supper with a couple of pints of best bitter.
    Laughing all the while.  Wrapping presents…some silly like the jug shaped like a rooster for Kevin or the puffy jackets
    for the girls.   At some point we would meet their boyfriends for the first time and hear  stories about Lancaster University
    where Nolan attends or the veterinary college in Edinburgh where Morgan is discovering how to keep cats purring, dogs
    barking, and horses neighing.    And Kevin would be making his special Swiss loaves of bread that look like giant
     knots.   Days would pass in sheer joy culminating in Christmas day when Marjorie would be able to give the 3 suitcases full
    of gifts to all around the Christmas tree.

    Then another jet would land with our other son Andrew and his family…Julie with her daughter Molly and son
    Jackson.   Their arrival would trigger another round of hugs and kisses and pints of best bitter or bottles of
    fine wine.   A moment in history …planned and paid for.  A holiday like no other.  A time that
    could never be replicated.  Gone with the winter wind.




    THE GOOD TIMES ARE NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.   I cancelled our flight a few hours ago.  Much of the ticket will 
    be refunded although Air Canada will deduct a $600 handling fee.  No problem.  Running an airline in
    a pandemic is a costly and losing proposition.  

    Just to take that flight would be risky.  Our Prime Minister … our Premier  … our Medical Profession ..all urge us not 
    to travel.  We have taken their advice. Instead of good times we will be wearing our masks, practicing visual measurement of social distancing,
    avoid meeting other people,  And all this is done in hopes of better times when
     WE’LL MEET AGAIN, 
    DON’T KNOW WHERE,
     DON’T KNOW WHEN
    BUT I KNOW WE’LL MEET AGAIN 
    SOME SUNNY DAY

    alan skeoch
    dec. 17, 2021
     












  • EPISODE 487 STORY OF TWO DOGS AND A POND WITH THIN ICE;;;december 2021, skeoch farm wellington county, ontario

    EPISODE 487   STORY OF TWO DOGS AND A POND WITH THIN ICE


    alan skeoch
    Dec. 1545


    THE ICE IS STILL THIN….


    THIS PICTURE IS MEANT TO BE UNSETTLING…THE DISC PLOW STANDS WHERE ONCE THE BARN STOOD.   A BARRIER BETWEEN
    THE TWO PONDS ON OUR FARM.  THREATENING.


    DANGER  DANGER  DANGER!!!   SOME DOGS CAN SMELL DANGER AND KNOW EXACTLY WHAT TO DO WHEN DANGER LOOMS AS IT DOES ON
    THIS THIN LAYER OF EARKY DECEMBER ICE ON ONE OF THE PONDS ON THE SKEOCH FARM.


    DATELINE:  EARLY DECEMBER 2021
    LOCATION: SKEOCH FARM, WELLINGTON COUNTY, ONTARIO

    The pond ice was thin.  Winter had not quite arrived when our dog Woody tested
    the ice and at the same time tested our nerves.  Sunshine, crisp air, a moment of freedom
    combined all at once and Woody took a risk.  Big risk.  Deadly risk.  He walked on 
    the ice.  Seemed firm.  So he kept on walking far from shore.  He walked out to where 
    the December sun had thinned the ice.

    Marjorie saw him standing out there.  She knew the adventure was about to turn into
    a tragedy.  “Woody, get off the ice!”  Woody looked at her…head up.  And that flexing
    of the neck muscles was enough to break the ice.  Woody fell forward and no matter what
    he did he could not get back on the ice.  Each time his front paws got a grip another shard 
    of ice split away. 

    Marjorie screamed and began edging out on the shore ice which split and sank.  Woody]
    was splashing around.  Too far away.  “Woody, oh, woody!”  He could do nothing but break 
    little panels of ice with his front paws and then submerge and pop up to try again.

    Then a very strange thing happened.  A wonderful thing.  Woody’s step sister, Failla, heard
    the cry.   She was exploring the margin of another pond over the hill where the barn once stood.
    Faila knew in a split second that there was trouble;  And she bolted.  She came full speed
    to where Marjorie stood in the shallows with the ice shards.

    She did not even stop for guidance.  She ran out to Woody across the firm ice to the
    disastrous ice which now floated in pieces around Woody as he thrashed around.
    Her speed across the ice reduced her weight on the ice.  She reached Woody.  Stopped
    suddenly and her weight broke more ice.  Failla was in the pond with Woody.  

    “Oh dear…oh dear!” Marjorie screamed thinking both dogs were about to drown.  And that
    could have been true.  But Failla had other ideas.  She began deliberately breaking ice in
    a straight line towards the shore.  Towards Marjorie.

    Woody is a Labrador dog.  He should be a natural swimmer but.  He was terrified by deep
    water.   Woody was having a  panic attack.  He would not…he could not…see
    trail of broken ice.  And Failla knew that.  She knew Woody needed more help.

    She took the lead showing him the way out through the broken ice,  Failla then turned around and swam back to Woody. 
    She showed Woody the way through the shards
    of ice to the shore where Marjorie stood.  Speechless.  She saved Woody’s life.

    Now many readers know dogs.  Dogs have many strengths and a few weaknesses.  One strength is
    the ability to sense danger.  Failla was a long distance away when she heard Marjorie scream.  Failla
    could not see the pond where Woody was splashing in his panic.  But she knew instinctively rear
    she was needed and she hurtled back to the disaster scene.  More that that.  She did not stop to
    assess the situation.  She plunged in…smashing her way across the ice… smashing a trail for Woody to escape.
    And even more that that Failla then swam through the channel she had made.  A rescue dog.

    If that was Marjorie doing the rescue she would get an award…perhaps even recognition by
    the Governor General of Canada.  A medal with a ribbon.  But there was no reward except
    this story.  Failla will never be forgotten.  There is an intelligence there when I look at her eyes.
    There is love there as well.

    alan skeoch
    dec. 2021

    Begin forwarded message:


    From: ALAN SKEOCH <alan.skeoch@rogers.com>
    Subject: Pond story
    Date: December 15, 2021 at 6:43:09 PM EST
    To: Alan Skeoch <alan.skeoch@rogers.com>






    This is Woody.   His half sister, Failla, keeps an eye on him.




    “Woody, did you know the ice on the pond is still very thin?”
    “I know now, Marjorie.”
    “Did you know your half sister was willing to risk her life just to save yours?”
    “I know now, Marjorie.”
    “Next time stay off the ice until full winter has arrived.”
    “Right you are.”
    “What reward can we give your sister, Woody?”
    “She can share my bed by the fireplace.”
    “She likes the truck seat better….”


    “That’s me, Failla, on the left.”
    “Who is the other dog, Failla?”
    “That’s my brother, Woody, —’ he’s not heavy, he’s my brother ‘ ”


    Sent from my iPhone


  • EPISODE 485 JOHN SKEOCH THRESHING 1927 NEAR KEILLER, SASKATCHEWAN

    EPISODE 485    JOHN SKEOCH THRESHING — KEILER, SASKATCHEWAN —circa 1927— Part 1  

    (Part 2 — putting flesh and blood into the John Skeoch threshing photograph..coming Episode 486)

    alan skeoch
    dec. 2021

    This is a copy of a panorama photograph of John Skeoch (on tractor) and a circa 1920-1927 threshing on his farm near 
     Keiller , Saskatchewan ,  What is the full meaning of the photograph?  Needs a  story 
    fleshed out below the pictures.   Skeoch story…Coming Part 2 Episode 486 — a story both personal and broadly historical


  • EPISODE 484 NOTICE FRONT AXLE…ROCKS TO BEAUTIFY BACK YARD SWIMMING POOL

    EPISODE 484    NOTICE THE FRONT AXLE…ROCKS FOR BACK YARD SWIMMING POOL


    alan skeoch
    Dec. 2021

    FOSSIL LANDSCAPING is currently building a swimming pool complete with decor
    from the Niagara Escarpment…heavy decor.

    No small task to load and unload these three rocks…heavy enough to raise the front axle, motor
    and Sean the driver and loader.

    (Note:  Very short story today…Just getting over the ordeal of my computer getting locked because the computer thought I
    was being hacked…just too many attempts at password which I had forgotten.)